边限检验理论下我国货币需求函数的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Demand for Money in China:Based on Bounds Testing Theory

货币政策已成为当前我国调节宏观经济的有效工具,正确预测货币需求函数是有效实施货币政策的关键。在建立了无约束误差修正模型的基础上,运用边限检验方法对中国货币需求与其影响因素之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,中国货币需求M0、M1、M2与其影响因素之间存在长期稳定关系,支出的不同组成部分对中国货币需求有不同的影响,汇率对中国各层次货币需求的影响作用为正且影响均显著,在短期内,投资支出对中国货币需求M和M都有显著影响。

The monetary policy has become an efficient tool for our country to regulate macro-economy, so how to accurately forecast the demand for money is a pivotal question. Based on the unrestricted error-correction models, we have used bounds testing to examine the long-run relationship of money demand and its determinants in China. The results verify that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the demand for M0, M1, M2 and their determinants, and the different components of real expenditure have different impacts on the demand for money in China. The exchange rate has a positive effect on the demand for M0, M1, and M2 , and the effect is notable. In the short run, investment expenditure is found to be significant for M1 and M2.