环境CGE模型的开发方法与应用综述

A Review on the Development Methods and Application of Environmental CGE Models

概述了在政策实施的环境影响越来越引起社会各界广泛重视的背景下，运用可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型来评估政策或外部冲击对环境产生的影响已成为环境政策研究领域的1个热点。指出CGE模型着眼于整个社会经济系统内的各类商品和要素间的供给与需求关系，并要求所有的市场出清；当价格、产业结构、政策变动和宏观经济变量等都是重要的影响因素时．CGE模型是非常有力的分析工具。全面回顾和总结了环境CGE模型的开发方法和应用进程。在总结几大奠基性环境CGE模型的建模思想的基础上，将环境CGE模型的主要开发方法归纳为4类：对资源、环境类的生产部门和要素进行单独处理；引入新的方程模块来刻画与环境．能源等相关的问题；通过改造生产或消费函数将环境效应引入到模型中；改造或扩展模型的数据基础。简要评述了每类方法的特点和适用情况。总结、展望了环境CGE模型在国内外的应用情况，以及未来的应用发展趋势。

Along with the rapid development of world economy, the problems of resource consumption and environment pollution are more and more concerned. Nowadays, the world has reached a common understanding that we should change the narrow concept of development that merely focuses on economic growth and should insist on the path of sustainable development. In recent years, much more attention is paid to the environmental influences of certain policies. It has become a popular subject in the field of environment or policy research to use CGE （computable general equilibrium） model to assess the influences produced by a certain policy or exogenous injection. Since the 1980s, many scholars and institutes have begun to extend the tradi- tional CGE models to include environmental issues so as to provide better tools for the study of environment related topics. The development methods and application processes of environmental CGE models were summarised. Based on the modelling ideas of several classical environmental CGE models, the model develop- ment methods were categorised into four types, and then the characteristics and adaptability of each type were described. Finally, the application in China and abroad as well as research direction of environmental CGE models in the future were discussed.