克拉玛依特强大风的气候特征及天气分析与预报

The Climatic Characteristics of the Extreme Strong Wind in Kelamayi and its Weather Analysis and Forecast

分析1971—2006年克拉玛依11级以上特强大风天气的气候特征,总结了年代际变化及月、季分布特点。研究显示,在全球气候变暖造成极端天气事件明显增多的大气候背景下,克拉玛依特强大风天气呈明显减少趋势。在这种气候背景下,利用NCEP资料,分析了克拉玛依发生特强大风的主要天气形势特征,提出预报思路,给出预报经验指标,提高对特强大风的防范意识和预报能力。

This paper analyzed the interannual variability, the seasonal patterns and the climatic characteristics of the extreme strong wind （greater than eleventh level） during 1971-2006 in Kelamayi. This research shows that the global warming caused extreme weather events to be markedly increased, but in this great climatic background, the extreme strong wind weather in Kelamayi to be reducing trend significantly. In such climatic background, this paper detected and summarized the major synoptic situation features based on NCEP data set, the forecast method and empirical forecast indices were suggested, and to raise the preventive consciousness and the forecasting capabilities for the extreme strong wind.