我国外汇储备增长与人民币升值关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Foreign Exchange Reserve Growth and RMB Appreciation

本文利用我国2005年7月-2007年6月的月度数据,通过协整分析、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验对外汇储备增长与人民币升值之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,汇率形成机制改革对于释放两者之间弹性,维持缓和的、相互促进的长期稳定均衡关系起到显著的效果,继续稳步推进人民币汇率市场化改革将是明智之举。

The paper studies the relationship between foreign exchange reserve growth and RMB appreciation with the monthly data covering the period from July 2005 to June 2007. The effect is examined by co-integration, error correction model, （ECM） and Granger causality test. The results show that the reform of RMB exchange rate regime plays a significant effect on releasing elasticity and promoting each other＇s long-term stability as well as balanced relation, so it will be a wise move to continue foreign exchange rate reform.