中国封闭式基金财富效应的实证分析——基于协整理论的分析

Empirical Analysis on the Wealth Effects of Closed-end Fund in China——Analysis Based on Co-integration

本文基于生命周期-持久收入假说(LC-PIH)的理论框架建立了封闭式基金财富效应估计的简约化模型,并运用上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所的样本数据进行了实证检验。结果表明我国封闭式基金市值与社会消费品零售总额之间不仅存在长期的协整关系,而且短期内也存在弱的财富效应。因而建议稳定基金市场发展,规范基金市场秩序,以充分发挥基金市场对我国消费的引导和调控作用。

Based on the conceptual framework of LC-PIH, this article sets up a simplified model for Wealth Effects of Closed-end Fund which is empirical verified by the sampling data collected from Shanghai Stork Exchange and Shenzhen Stork Exchange. The findings demonstrate that there exists long-term, co-integration relation between Closed-end Fund Market Value and the Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods. Furthermore, it also shows a weak wealth effect in short term. Therefore, the authors suggest that stabilization of the fund market development and regulation of the fund market order will fully display the fund market as the guidance and monitor for country＇s consumption.