1986—2005年抚顺大风特征分析及预报

Strong wind characteristics and forecast from 1986 to 2005 in Fushun

选取1986—2005年抚顺地区3个测站地面自记风资料,探讨抚顺地区大风的时空分布规律。结果表明:近20 a抚顺地区大风有多个高值年和低值年,平均7—8 a为1个波段,2002年后大风日数明显减少。春季大风最多,冬季最少。根据环流形势特征,将大风分为两高夹低型、东高西低型、西高东低型和中小尺度型4种天气环流类型。建立了偏南大风、偏北大风和中小尺度型大风的预报指标和预报方法,为大风预报提供依据。选取2001—2005年40次大风观测数据进行预报效果检验,预报正确率为62%,检验效果较好。

Based on auto-recorded wind data in 3 weather stations of Fushun from 1986 to 2005, the temporal and spatial distributions of strong winds were discussed. The results indicate that there are many peak value years and vale value years of strong winds during recent 20 years in Fushun. And the cycle is about 7 - 8 years. The numbers of strong wind days reduce obviously since 2002. The strong wind happens mostly in spring, and it is little in winter. According to the circulation characteristics, the strong winds are divided into 4 types, i. e. two high clipping the low type, east high west low type, west high and east low type, and meso-micro scale type. The forecast indexes and methods of the leaning south strong wind, the leaning north strong wind and the meso-micro scale strong wind are established in order to provide the base for strong wind forecast. The forecast effect is tested in terms of 40 strong wind observation data from 2001 to 2005. And the accuracy rate of the forecast reaches 62%.