系统响应气候变化脆弱性定量评价国内研究综述

An Overview of Domestic Researches on Assessment of Vulnerability of Systems to Climate Change

定量评价气候变化脆弱性是人类采取适应性措施应对全球气候变化,以减少其不利影响的关键和基础。在对气候变化脆弱性有关概念进行讨论,及对国际、国内系统响应气候变化脆弱性评价研究回顾的基础上,对中国近十几来有关气候变化脆弱性定量评价研究的成果从三个方面进行了较为系统的总结:气候情景的模拟预测、系统变化过程的模拟、脆弱性指标的选取及脆弱性层次的划分。最后,从评价对象、技术手段、指标体系、时间尺度等方面探讨了该领域研究的不足及发展方向。

Quantitative Assessment of the vulnerability of natural/socio - economic systems to the climate change is the prem- ise and basis for human being to take adaptive measures to deal with the global climate change and eliminate its negative impacts. Based on the discussion about conceptions relative to vulnerability of systems to climate change, and the reviews to the domestic relative researches on the assessments of the vulnerability of natural/socio - economic systems to climate changes, this paper generalizes the domestic research fruits of quantitative assessments of vulnerability of natural/socio - economic systems to climate changes from three aspects ： modeling and predicting the scenarios of climate change , modeling the change process of systems and choice of vulnerability indices and splitting of vulnerability levels. Lastly, points out the deficiencies of the research and its developing ways from four aspects ：objects of assessment technical means, evaluation index system and time - scale.