摘要
针对电力需求预测具有复杂性、阶段性等特点,构建了电力需求预测后评价指标体系,并根据指标预测偏差的大小确定了评价等级;以各层指标预测准确度为基础建立的电力需求预测分层后评价模型,通过引入调整系数,兼顾了电力需求预测和滚动调整预测对电力发展的不同指导意义,并较好地解决了综合评价模型无法获得各层指标评价结果的局限性问题。以我国某地区的实际数据为基础进行实例分析,证明了该模型的有效性和实用性。
According to the complexity and stage of power demand forecasting, this paper constructs the index system for power demand forecasting post evaluation, and makes evaluation grades referring to the deviation of index. After introducing the modification factor and giving attention to the power demand forecasting and adjustment forecasting＇s great significance and effect, this paper establishes the hierarchical post evaluation model by evaluating the forecasting precisions of indicators in each layer, which can acquire evaluation results in each layer. Finally, through analyzing and calculating the real data of a certain area in our country, the result proves the model＇s efficiency and feasibility.
出处
《电力系统保护与控制》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第20期45-49,101,共6页
Power System Protection and Control
关键词
电力需求预测
指标体系
评价等级
评价标准
分层后评价
power demand forecasting
index system
evaluation grade
evaluation standard
hierarchical post evaluation
