近代上海标金期货市场的实证分析——基于上海标金期货市场与伦敦白银市场之关系的视角

An Empirical Analysis on Shanghai Standard Gold Future Market in Modern Times——Based on the Relationship between Shanghai Gold Future Market and London Silver Market

当前学术界对近代中国标金期货市场的研究多是运用历史学和史料学的归纳总结方法,而缺少计量经济学的实证分析与检验。文章采用1921-1935年伦敦银市场和上海标金市场每日收盘数据,运用计量经济学的Granger因果关系检验得出:1921-1931年,伦敦银市场与上海标金市场之间存在双向因果关系,相互影响。检验结果表明:世界货币金本位制的放弃和南京国民政府对市场的强制干预,是导致中国国内与国外金融市场隔离的主要内外原因。

At present, researches on standard gold future market in modern China have been drawn mostly by using inductive or summarized methods of history and historical materials, so the researches are lack of empirical analysis and tests of econometrics. On the basis of daily data about modern China^s standard gold future market and London silver market from 1921 to 1931, using Granger causality test, the paper concludes that during the period from 1921 to 1931, the above two markets not only have a bidirectional causality relationship, but also affect each other. The test results indicate that abandonment on gold standard in the world and strict intervention on financial market from Kuomintang government are the main reasons making China＇s domestic financial market apart from foreign financial markets.