中美贸易失衡原因的实证研究

Reasons for Sino-American Trade Imbalance:An Empirical Study

中美贸易失衡问题是中美近些年来双边贸易争端的核心,人民币升值的压力与此紧密相关。从实际汇率出发,通过1980—2005年的人民币实际汇率错位程度的测算和方差分解发现,造成中美贸易失衡的主要原因是中国近些年来持续、快速的经济增长以及大量的FD I流入,而人民币汇率水平对中美贸易失衡影响不大,因此,单纯的依靠人民币升值很难解决中美贸易失衡问题。

Sino - American trade imbalance is at the core of the bilateral trade dispute and the pressure for renminbi appreciation is closely related to it. Proceeding from real exchange rate, this paper measures and makes a variance decomposition of misalignment of real renminbi exchange rate. It is found that main reasons for the trade imbalance are China＇s sustained and rapid economic growth and enormous FDI inflow, and that renminbi exehange rate has had limited effect. Therefore, it would be difficult to redress the trade imbalance solely through renminbi appreciation.