高速公路项目融资风险的动态灰色模糊评价

A Dynamic Grey-Fuzzy Evaluation Method for Financing Risk in Freeway Project

高速公路项目融资风险影响因素众多,而且在项目不同的发展阶段各风险因素的影响程度不同。针对单纯采用灰色评价或模糊评价方法都不能客观、准确地评价项目总体融资风险,并且难以体现高速公路项目融资风险的动态特性,提出了动态灰色模糊综合评价方法,并将它应用于某高速公路项目融资风险的评价之中。结果表明该方法不但能充分利用专家的丰富经验,又有效减小了主观因素的影响,同时还体现了融资风险因素的动态特性,从而使项目投资者能够根据项目发展各阶段的风险评价值来有针对性地进行预防和监控。适用于高速公路等基础设施项目的融资风险综合评价。

There are many risks that influence freeway project financing and the influence of these risks differ by project stage. However, it is impossible to analyze the total risk of project financing objectively and accurately merely using the fuzzy or grey evaluation methods. These methods cannot reflect the dynamic characteristics of financing risks during freeway project construction. A dynamically grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was established and used to evaluate the financing risks of a freeway project. The results indicate that this method can not only make full use of the rich experience of the experts, but also reduce the influence of subjective factors. In addition, this method can reflect the dynamic characteristics of the financing risks during freeway project construction. Investors therefore can pertinently prevent and control financing risks based on the results of the evaluation of financing risks in every stage of the project. A demonstration shows that the method is suitable for comprehensive evaluation of financing risks of infrastructure projects such as freeways.