PPP模式下基础设施项目私营方风险预警模型

Early Warning of Risk for Transportation Infrastructure Projects under a PPP Model

从私营方的角度出发,针对PPP模式与基础设施项目的具体特点,提出了涉及到政治与法律风险、经济风险、信用风险、建设风险、运营管理风险5个方面的15项项指标组成的风险预警指标体系,并运用模糊群决策理论与物元理论构建了PPP模式下基础设施项目私营方风险预警模型。模糊群决策法可有效算出各定性预警指标的权重和评价值,避免了单一决策者的局限性,而物元模型利用综合关联度进行风险综合评价,且计算方法简单,评价结果直观。最后,通过实证研究说明了具体应用过程,结论表明该方法科学可行。

Based on characteristics of transportation infrastructure projects under a PPP model, an early warning risk index system for the private sector was put forward. The system is comprised of 15 indexes from five aspects, including risks associated with politics and law, economics, credit, construction and operation. An early warning risk model was constructed by applying fuzzy set theory and matter element theory. The fuzzy set method helps calculate the weight and evaluation values for qualitative indexes, thereby avoiding the limitations of individual decisions. The matter-element method can evaluate comprehensive risks by using the comprehensive relations, is easy to use, and directly gives results. Further empirical research was conducted that verifies this method is scientific and applicable.