高层建筑火灾安全疏散的改进灰关联评估模型

An Improved Grey Relation Model of Safety Evaluations of Evacuation from High-rise Building Fires

通过研究高层建筑火灾时个人疏散时间,发现疏散成功与否取决于安全水平较低的影响因素,而传统的灰关联方法不能反映各点关联系数波动值对关联度的影响;另外,单一使用主、客观赋权方法也是影响火灾疏散评估准确性一个重要因素。在此分析基础上提出利用灰色相对欧几里德关联度解决各点关联系数波动值对关联度的影响;其次,利用斯皮尔曼等级相关系数组合主、客观权重,用互补的方法解决单一赋权的缺陷,并通过实例验证了改进灰关联评估模型的可行性。通过比较计算结果发现将组合权重和欧几里德关联度方法应用于高层建筑火灾安全疏散评估模型,能够提高评估结果的准确性,使评估模型与高层建筑火灾安全疏散特性相对应,并发现权重对评估结果有较大影响。

Based on a study of the time-process of individual evacuees in high-rise building fires, we found that the low-security influencing factor will affect the possibility of successful evacuation severely. The traditional grey relational grade cannot reflect the effect of the grey relational coefficient fluctuation. Moreover, the single weight calculation with a subjective or objective weight will also directly affect the evaluation result of safe evacuation during high-rise building fires. Based on these analyses, the grey Euclid relative grade was applied to indicate the effect of the grey relational coefficient fluctuation. The Spearman correlative rating coefficient was used to combine the subjective and objective weights to eliminate the deficiency of the single weight case. We discuss the possibility of applying the improved grey relational evaluation. Comparing the evaluation results, we found that the weight combination and grey Euclid relation applied in a safety evaluation model can improve evaluation result accuracy. The evaluation model thus corresponds to the characteristics of high-rise building fires and the weight set substantially affects the evaluation result.