草地螟(Loxostege sticticalis)周期性大发生与太阳黑子活动的相关性

Correlation analysis between the periodic outbreaks of Loxostege sticticalis(Lepidoptera:Pyralidae) and solar activity

草地螟Loxostege sticticalis L．是一种周期性大发生的农作物主要害虫，自新中国成立后已经3次大规模暴发成灾，但关于草地螟周期性大发生的原因还未见报道。利用国际通用的太阳黑子活动数据和我国草地螟大发生的历史记载进行相关性和相位分析的结果表明，我国草地螟大发生的周期性与对应的太阳黑子活动的奇数周期相关联。建国以来的3个大发生周期分别与对应的太阳黑子活动的第19、21周和第23周期在时间序列上表现出极高的同步性，尽管草地螟的发生为害程度与太阳黑子的活动强度之间相关性并不显著。根据这些结果，并结合太阳黑子活动周期的预测，草地螟在我国的第4个大发生周期很有可能开始于2017～2020年之间，并在2024—2025年间达到高峰。

Meadow moth is one of the serious periodic outbreak agricultural pests in China and it has occurred three times after 1949. However, the cause of periodic outbreak of this moth is still unclear. In this paper, correlation analysis and phase analysis has been carried out between the historical record of sunspot activity and the meadow moth occurrence in China. The results indicate that there is a high synchronization between the outbreak period of meadow moth and the odd period of solar activity. Three outbreaks of meadow moth after 1949 are synchronized with the 19th, 21st and 23rd cycle of the sunspot activity on a time series, although the relationship between the outbreak scale and sunspot activity dimensions is not significant. According to present results and the forecast of the sunspot activity cycle, the authors predict that the fourth outbreak period of meadow moth will be coming during 2017 -2020 and reach the peak during 2024- 2025 in China.