我国环境库兹涅茨曲线:形态、拐点和影响因素

Chinese Environmental Kuznets Curves:Shapes,Turning Points and Responsible Factors

本文采用非参数方法分析我国环境库兹涅茨曲线。结果表明,废水曲线为两端略微上翘的倒U形曲线,在1·9万元处存在拐点;废气曲线为线性上升曲线,斜率约为1·04;固体废物曲线存在东部发达地区的上升变平缓趋势和中西部地区的线性上升趋势。污染曲线的高度随第三产业比例提高而下降,第二产业比例和重污染行业比例提高将损害曲线形态。矿产资源丰富的省份废气和固体废物曲线斜率较大,水资源丰富地区废水曲线易形成U形曲线。排污费曲线反常的上拐部分表明排污费存在失效区,在失效区右端提高排污费方能改善曲线形态。

This paper studies the Chinese Environmental Kuznets Curves relying on nonparametric approaches. Results show that the water pollution curve is inverted U-shaped with little upswings on both sides, and turning point emerges at 18997 Yuan. The air pollution curve is upward sloping, and the slope coefficient is 1.04. In case of the solid waste curves, there are two trends. The curve of the east regions rises firstly and then stabilizes, and the curve of the middle-west regions rises monotonously. The heights of the curves are negatively related with the tertiary industry share. The shapes of the curves will be hurt if the share of the second in- dustry and the share of polluting sectors in industrial output increase. In general, the slope coefficients of the air and solid waste pollution curves increase where mineral resources are rich and U-shaped curve of water pollution is more likely to occur where water resources are abundant.