深化开放中的锁定效应与技术依赖

Lock-in Effect and Technology Dependence during China's Opening up

本文从锁定效应的视角来分析对外开放对中国技术水平发展的影响。在一个新古典配置模型基础上,本文说明我国在开放进程中技术水平的发展具有路径依赖性,并以高技术产业1996～2006年的数据为样本,运用数据包络方法测量高技术产业技术进步、技术效率、技术变化等指标,揭示技术密集型产业中存在的技术变化锁定特征。本文通过建立计量模型,分时段对比研究深化开放时期高新技术产业锁定效应的传导机制,发现人力资本和研发资本是技术变化锁定的主要影响途径,这两类要素资源质的提高将有利于我国摆脱开放中锁定效应的影响。

This paper analyzes the impact of opening up on China＇s technology progress from a new perspective of the lock-in effect of the resource allocation in an open economy. On the basis of a simple neoclassical allocation model, we explain the probability of path dependence existing in the development of China＇s technology. According to sample containing 17 hi-technical industries＇ data from 1996 to 2006, this paper clarifies the lock in of technology based on DEA method. Then this paper comparatively studies on the transmission mechanism between openingup and technology lock-in by applying the econometric model and empirical analysis. The main conclusion of the paper is that low-level human capital and R＆D are the more important transmitting mechanics of technology lock-in effect than physi- cal capital. To promote the quality of these two resources will help China throw off the negative aspect of lock-in effect during opening up.