基于CVM的城市突发停水事件导致居民家庭经济损失评估研究

An evaluation approach based on CVM to the economic loss of households due to the emergent urban water supply breakdowns

基于停水时间长度的城市突发停水事件损失程度分类体系,采用条件价值评估方法评估了城市突发停水事件导致的居民家庭经济损失。以上海市为例,针对居民家庭在不同停水时间下可能受到的影响及采取的应对措施,采用基于条件价值评估法的连续型支付卡问卷,调查居民家庭的受偿意愿,间接估算其经济损失。结果表明,上海市居民家庭对停水1 d2、-3 d、4-7 d和7 d以上突发停水事件的平均受偿意愿分别为10.76元/（户.d）、63.20元/（户.d）、143.36元/（户.d）和234.04元/（户.d）;突发停水1 d2、-3 d4、-7 d和7 d以上对上海市所有居民家庭造成的总经济损失分别约为0.22亿元/d、2.90亿元/d、6.85亿元/d和11.19亿元/d;突发停水事件中影响居民家庭经济损失的因素依次为家庭月用水量、家庭月总收入和居民家庭对突发停水事件的风险意识。本研究对完善突发停水事件应急管理体系、评估事件危害程度和提出补偿方案具有一定的参考价值。

The present paper is dedicated to the study of urban water supply break-down accidents,which has a great impact on both the normal life of residents and the safe operation of urban system.It is just for this reason that we have established an improved emergency management system for evaluating the economic loss of such accidents and a corresponding compensation program for such losses. Our system includes the classification system of such emergency accidents on breakdown time and the contingent valuation method（CVM） to elicit the mean WTA（Willingness to Accept Compensation） of the households in Shanghai by payment card questionnaires.The trial use of our system shows that,（1） The WTA in Shanghai during the period of the cut-off time of one day,two to three days,four to seven days and even more than seven days are 10.76 yuan,63.20 yuan,143.36 yuan and 234.04 yuan per household per day respectively, （2） According to the number of the households,the total economic loss of all the households in Shanghai are 22 000 000 yuan,290 000 000 yuan,685 000 000 yuan and 1 119 000 000 yuan per day, （3） Factors affecting the households＇ economic loss are monthly water consumption,monthly total income and risk awareness of the accidents of the said nature.