南京市城市化进程对城市增温的影响分析

The Effect of Urbanization on Air Temperature Increase in Nanjing City

利用层次分析法和非线性拟合法分析了南京市城市化进程,并选取了年平均最高、最低气温和年平均气温作为研究对象,分别探讨了城市化与城市各项气温增温的影响关系。在该基础上建立了城市化效应与温度变化的线性模型。结果表明：①1980～2006年,南京市城市化进程对城市增温影响显著,城市化与增温之间有较强的相关性;②城市化对年平均最低气温的影响最为明显,对年平均气温的影响次之,对年平均最高气温的影响最小;③除个别年份外,城市化对3项气温变化的影响比重均小于区域气候对其的影响比重;④城市化对3项气温的影响与南京市城市化进程的特点相吻合。

The urbanization in Nanjing by using methods of AHP and nonlinear fitting were analysed, and the relation between urbanization and temperature increasing by selecting yearly average maximum, minimum temperature and yearly average temperature were discussed. The linear models were established based on urbanization effect and temperature. It was shown that： （1）The urbanization had a great impact on temperature increase, and there was a strong correlation between urbanization and warming in Nanjing from 1980 to 2006; （2）The urbanization had a greater effect on yearly average minimum temperature than on the yearly average temperature and had a least effect on the yearly average maximum temperature; （3）The proportion of the effects of urbanization on the three kinds of temperature （ the yearly average maximum temperature, the yearly average minimum temperature and the yearly average temperature） change was less than effects of region climate; （4）Tne characteristics of urbanization process in Nanjing tallied with effect of urbanization on three kinds of temperature.