华北地区加密探空资料对T213数值预报的检验评估

The Effect Test of T213 Numerical Forecast Products by Intensive Radiosonde Data in North China Region

华北地区加密探空观测已进行了2年，在强对流天气预报中起到不可替代的作用。本文利用加密探空资料对T213数值天气预报20时（北京时，下同）的18h和42h的探空预报进行对比分析，评价其预报的可信度。检验结果认为：T213数值预报对高度场预报最好，温度次之，再次为风速，相对湿度预报偏差最大；由T213预报的TlogP图状态曲线与实际观测比较吻合，露点温度曲线虽然与实际观测相差很大，但变化趋势比较一致，可以考虑在相对湿度的预报之上增加一个变量使之与观测资料更加符合。

Being contrast analyzed with the intensive radiosonde data in north China region, the forecasting reliability of T213 numerical forecast products of 18h and 42h are tested. The results show that, the effect of product of height field is the best, that of temperature takes second place, the wind velocity is the next, and that of air humidity is the worst. The forecast of the state curve of TlogP corresponds to the practical observation, and the error of dew point temperature is large but can be usable by modification of errors.