灰色计量经济学模型在中长期电力需求预测中的应用研究

Research on application of gray econometric model in medium and long term electricity demand forecasting

提出了一种基于灰色计量经济学模型的中长期电力系统负荷预测方法。通过在传统计量经济学模型中融入灰色系统模型,改善了传统模型的拟合效果,提高了预测精度。在华北地区某市"十一五"电力需求预测工作中,分别用传统计量经济学模型和灰色计量经济学模型对电力负荷进行了预测,结果表明灰色计量经济学模型具有显著的优越性,是一种实用而有效的电力需求预测方法。

A new method for medium and long term power system load forecasting modeling based on gray econometric model is presented in this paper. Gray system model taking effects in traditonal econometric model, the fitting effect of traditional model is better, and the forecasung accuracy is improved. In the Eleventh Five Year electricity demand forecasting of a city, traditional econometric model and gray econometric model are used respectively. The result shows that gray econometric model has remarkable advantages. The proposed method is a practical and available one in electricity demand forecasting.