人民币实际汇率与中国经济增长的关系研究——基于边限检验法的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应检验

Study on Relationship between RMB Real Exchange Rate and China’s Economic Growth:A Test of Balassa-Samuelson Effect Using Bounds Testing Approach

以Faria和Leon-Ledesma简化的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森模型为基础,运用Pesaran、Shin和Smith的边限检验法实证分析了1980-2007年期间人民币实际汇率与中国经济增长之间是否存在长期稳定关系。研究发现:改革开放以来,中国经济增长并没有伴随着人民币实际汇率的升值,巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应在中国不成立。产生这一结果的原因在于:对高估的汇率进行贬值是中国经济高速增长的前奏,非市场化的劳动力市场阻断了B-S效应中价格传递机制的发生。但是,如果中国经济保持较高的增长率,人民币实际汇率在长期中将经历一个升值过程。

Using Faria and I.eon Ledesma＇s Balassa-Samuelson model and the bounds testing approach, this paper analyzes the long-run relationship between RMB real exchange rate and China＇s economic growth during 1980-2007. The result shows that RMB real exchange rate haven＇t appreciated with China＇s economic growth since reform and opening, and the Balassa Samuelson effect haven＇t appeared in China. These results can he attributed to China＇s measures to depreciate the overvalued exchange rate before its high-speed economic growth, as well as the non marketing labor market hindering the price transmit mechanism of the Balassa-Samuelson effect. However,if China＇ s economy growth keeps with high speed in the future,RMB real exchange rate will experience a process of appreciation.