α-加权模糊线性回归模型在参考作物需水量预测中的应用

The α-Weighted Fuzzy Linear Regression Model in Reference Crops Water Demand Forecasting Application

建立了一种回归系数为对称三角模糊数的α-加权模糊线性回归模型,以辽宁省锦州市为例,把该地区1957～1996年参考作物需水量作为历史样本,运用模型预测1997～2006年的参考作物需水量。与传统线性回归和模糊线性回归预测进行比较,结果表明:该模型能够实现历史数据"重近轻远"的预测效果,进一步提高预测精度,减小预测误差,为制定科学的节水灌溉制度和地区节水灌溉规划提供重要的科学依据。

This research has established one kind of regression coefficient for the symmetrical triangle fuzzy number α-weighted fuzzy linear regression model. Taking Jinzhou as the example and taking this local 1957-1996 year reference crops water demand as the historical sample, 1997-2006 year reference crops water demand were forecast using the model.Carries on the comparison with the traditional linear regression and the fuzzy linear regression forecast, The result indicated that this model could realize the historical data ＂heavily near light far＂ ：he forecast effect, further increase the forecast precision, reduce the forecast error, provide the important scientific basis for making saving water irrigation system and the local saving water irrigation plan.