中国财政支出的经济效应研究:1978-2006——基于增长效应、影响时滞和因果关系的经济计量分析

An Analysis of the Economic Effect of China's Government Expenditure:1978-2006——Empirical Analysis about Growth Effect,Time Lag and the Test of Granger Causality

随着中国经济的快速发展,财政支出规模不断扩大。文章分析了1978-2006年中国财政支出和国内总产值的变化趋势,运用VAR模型和Granger因果关系检验理论对中国财政支出的经济带动作用进行了实证研究。结论表明,1978-2006年,中国财政支出促进了经济增长,财政支出冲击对GDP的作用较弱。GDP的增加对财政支出有较为显著的正向影响,当年GDP增加1个百分点,财政支出增加0.011个百分点,且这种作用不断加大,第10年的贡献值为77%。从因果关系检验来看,二者之间存在显著的单向因果关系。

With the growing up of China＇ s economy, government expenditure increases rapidly. This thesis analyzes the great changes of government expenditure and economic growth detailedly during the course of 1978 - 2006. On the basis of the study of government expenditure and GDP, the model of VAR and the theorem of Granger causality are introduced in order to testify the economic effect of government expenditure. The article suggests that the government expenditure promotes the economic growth clearly, the response of GDP to one S.D. government expenditure innovation is very puny, but the response of government expenditure to one S.D. GDP innovation is strong, government expenditure will increase 0.011 percent when GDP enhances 1 percent. The contribution proportion of GDP to government expenditure increases continuously, of which the maximum is 77 percents in the tenth year. The single directional causality exists between government expenditure and GDP in the period of 1978 - 2006 and China＇s economic growth boosts the government expenditure.