我国利率调控面临的困境及政策含义

The Dilemma of Interest Rate Control and Policy Implications in China

在我国当前宏观经济发展的背景下,为应对金融市场上的流动性过剩和通货膨胀,需要上调利率。但利率的提高不仅会增加投机资本的流入和人民币升值的压力,还会引发外币贷款的迅速增长,从而加剧流动性过剩的压力;同时,利率的上升并不能有效地控制房价,反而会导致商业银行信贷风险的上升。另外,利率调控的不对称性还影响了中央银行调控的效果和强度。本文主要分析我国利率调控面临的困境,并给出了相应的政策含义。

On the background of Chinese current macro economy, interest rate should be raised in order to control excess liquidity on the financial market and the inflation. But increasing interest rate not only will lead to more speculating capital and put higher pressure on RMB appreciation, but also will result in rapid growth of foreign exchange loans, further exacerbating excess liquidity. Meanwhile, increasing interest rate cannot effectively control real estate prices, and will bring about higher credit risk of commercial banks. In addition, the asymmetry of interest rate control has a significant effect on the results of macro economy regulations. The paper mainly analyzes the dilemma of interest rate control, and puts forward some corresponding policy implications.