基于谱分析的安徽省经济波动研究

A Research on Economic Fluctuation in Anhui Province Based on Spectral Analysis

科学地测定经济周期,有利于从更深层次理解和把握安徽经济系统的运行状态,对于安徽国民经济实现又好又快地发展具有十分重要的理论定义与现实意义。目前国内学者对安徽宏观经济波动的研究还比较少,故采用增长周期法,剔除安徽省国内生产总值指数长期趋势,生成人工序列,并对其进行加汉宁窗的谱分析,得到相应谱密度曲线;确定安徽省经济波动周期分量的长度与类型,对安徽经济周期波动情况进行回顾,发现固定资产投资的周期波动是造成安徽经济周期波动最直接的内在原因。安徽省应加强宏观经济调控,以减缓经济波动造成的影响。

To measure the economic cycle scientifically is advantageous in understanding and grasping the running status of Anhui economic system from a deeper level, and takes a very important theory and practical significance to realize Anhui national economy＇s well and quick development. But, presently, there are few domestic scholars who doing the research of Anhui macro economic fluctuation. Growth cycle method is adopted in this paper. After the data of Anhui province are collected, the long - term trend of GDPI is eliminated and the artificial sequence forms. Spectral density curve is gained, and the length, style of economic fluctuation cycle is confirmed. The cyclical fluctuation of investment in the fixed assets is the most direct immanent cause to make the Anhui economic cycle to fluctuation, Anhui Province should strengthen the controlling to regulation in order to reduce the influence caused by the economical fluctuation.