两千年来黑河流域水资源平衡估算与下游水环境演变驱动分析

Water Balance Aessessment and the Lower Reaches' Water Regime Processes in Heihi Rever Basin in the Last 2000 Years

利用地方史志、历史地理、树木年轮和近代器测记录相关的黑河流域历史时期人口变动、水土资源开发利用、下游湖泊变化、流域水资源和气候变化等资料,通过对比上游出山水资源量、中游人类活动水资源利用量和下游湖泊面积变化,在千年-百年时间尺度上对流域水资源平衡进行了估算,并分析了历史时期各阶段下游湖泊水环境和天然绿洲演变过程和驱动机制.研究结果表明:在黑河流域,气候变化条件下的上游山区水资源总量和中游走廊平原区绿洲人类活动用水后下泄的水资源量,决定了下游水环境演变过程;在两千年来显现出不同历史阶段的流域水资源平衡模式和下游水环境演变特征,以及气候变化和人类活动在不同历史时期的耦合驱动机制.

Analyzing the data of population, exploitation and utilization of water-land resources, terminal lake changes, changes in water resources and climate in the Heihe River Basin, which were collected from the local historical ethnographies, historical geography information and dendrochronological records in the last 2000 years, together with recent instrumental records of climate and hydrology, the oasis＇ water consumption in the middle reaches of the river and water balance of the whole basin are estimated in the thousand to hundred years scale, and the water environment, as well as the forcing mechanisms of oasis evolvement, is discussed. It is revealed that the water environment evolution in the lower reaches of Heihe River was controlled hy the total water resources in the upper reaches under climate change and the remnant water resources after the consumption in the corridor oases in the middle reaches of the river. The water balance model of the whole basin and the features of the water environment in the lower reacties of the river were different in different periods in the last two thousand years. Climate change and human activity jointly drove the water environment evolution in the Heihe River Basin.