西北地区农林牧业生产及农业结构调整对全球气候变暖响应的研究进展

The Progress in Researches on the Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture-Forestry-Stockbreeding Production and Agricultural Structure Adjustment in Northwest China

受西北地区现代气候变化呈现冬暖夏干的影响，甘肃黄土高原200cm深土壤贮水量呈减少趋势，适宜农作物生长时段减少2—3月．黄土高原作物气候生产力呈下降趋势，年递减率为10．45kg·hm^-2，暖干型和冷干型气候对作物生长非常不利，减产为4．3％～27．1％．对畜牧业的影响利弊共存，使牧区草场产草量和质量以及生产力下降；但牲畜死损率明显降低，幼畜成活率明显增加；牲畜抓膘育肥利弊因素相当，牲畜肉量呈波动式变化．小陇山森林资源呈减少趋势，90年代最为严重．在全球变暖的气候变化下，需要农林牧业结构发生重大调整，提出了甘肃省以及祁连北坡、陇东、陇东南和陇南等4个具有代表性的重点地域的农林牧业种植结构调整发展战略与优化方案．其研究结果为西北地区农林牧业安全生产、趋利避害、减轻不利影响提供科学的指导意见．

In this paper, the main results and progress of the proiect ＂The Study of the Impact of Global Warming on Arid Ecological Environment in Gansu Province＂ and other two projects are summarized. It is revealed that the amount of water stored in 200-cm deep soil was decreasing. The duration suitable for crop growth has shortened by 2 to 3 months. The climate crop productivity has decreased by 10.45 kg·hm^-2 every year in the Loess Plateau in Gansu. The cold-arid and hot-arid climates have caused a decrease in yield from 4.3 to 27.1%. On livestock farming, climate change has both positive and negative effects. While it caused the decrease in the quantity and quality of grasses, climate warming reduced livestock mortality, increased survival rate of young stocks. The negative and positive effects were comparable, as a result, the annual meat production varied yearly. Climate change caused a shrink in forest in the Xiaolong Mountain, especially in the 1990s. To adapt for these changes, this research proposed an optimized scheme and development strategy for the structure-adjusting of agriculture-forest-livestock in four representative areas located on the north slopes of the Qiliang Mountains, and the eastern, southeastern and southern Gansu Province. The results provided guidelines and suggestions for improving the agriculture, forestry and livestock in Northwest China.