基于可信性理论的电气化铁路牵引供电系统RAMS的模糊评估

Fuzzy RAMS Evaluation of High-Speed Railway Traction Power Supply System Based on Uncertainty Theory

应用故障树分析法建立了牵引变电所和接触网的可靠性模型,进而建立了整个牵引供电系统的可靠性模型.在大量调研的基础上,用梯形模糊变量来描述接触线、承力索和绝缘子的故障率及修复率,用三角形模糊变量来描述牵引变电所和接触网其他部件的故障率和修复率,将牵引供电系统的故障率、修复率和可用度等RAMS指标均视为随机模糊函数,利用可信度理论,实现了牵引供电系统的RAMS模糊评估.计算结果表明,牵引供电系统的可靠性主要取决于接触网的可靠性,而且只要知道了各部件故障率和修复率的大致分布,就可较准确地计算出牵引供电系统的RAMS指标,最大误差只有7%左右,满足工程精度的要求.

The reliability models of the traction power substation（TPS） and catenary system have been established based on FTA at first, the reliability model of whole traction power supply system（TPSS） was set up further. The failure rates and the repair rates of the contact wires, messenger wires and insulators were characterized by trapezoid fuzzy variables after investigation, and the others of the traction power snbstation and catenary system were described by the triangle fuzzy variables, all of the RAM S indices are taken as probabilistic fuzzy functions, the fuzzy RAMS evaluation of the high-speed railway traction power supply system has been done based on the uneertainty theory for the first time. The evaluation results show that the reliability of the whole traction power supply system mainly relies on the reliability of the eatenary system, the RAMS indices can be calculated precisely even the approximate distributions of the failure rates and the repair rates were given. The maximal error is only 7%.