国内市场效应理论:主要论题及近期拓展

The Latest Research Developments in the Home-Market Effect Theory

国内市场效应理论(HME理论)是新贸易理论最重要的组成部分之一,这一理论将规模经济作为内生变量,认为一国特定产品的国内市场需求规模是其出口贸易的决定因素。文章就这一理论最近的发展进行了系统的考察。研究显示,HME理论基于规模收益递增、不完全竞争的市场结构以及正的贸易成本这三个核心假定之上,近十年以来,无论是理论拓展,还是实证研究,大多围绕对这三个假定条件的修改展开。迄今为止,绝大多数研究支持了这一理论最初的核心推论,少数与其相悖的实证结论则源自对假定条件的修改。

As one of the most important parts of the New Trade Theory initiated by Paul Krugman, the home markets effect theory takes economies of scale in production as the fundamental variable endogenously, and refers the basic incentives of trade between countries （ or regions） to the demand of their home markets. This paper checks the research literatures on the theory in recent decade critically. We have found that almost all those attempts to expand the theory have been initiated with certain degree of revision of the three key conditions set in the theory originally, i.e. scale economies, imperfect competition and trade costs. Most research results give certain degree of support to the original reasoning of the Krugman model, while those empirical conclusions opposed to the model are more or less based on the modification of the original assumptions.