摘要
本文对我国CPI与房地产市场价格指数之间的相关性进行统计分析发现,两者之间存在显著的正相关性,而且房地产市场具有领先性特点。基于此,文章分析了我国房地产市场发展是影响CPI的主要渠道,认为房地产市场的理性调整有利于控制通货膨胀;相反,在当前外部危机压力下刺激房地产市场会有助于缓解可能的通货紧缩问题,但也存在因市场调整不到位的潜在风险。
An statistic ＇analysis is made on the data of CPI and the price index of real estate in China from 2003 to 21308. We discover that the correlation between CPI and the price index of real eastate is significantly positive, and the real estate market impacts CPI. We propose that the reasonable adjustment of real estate market will be conducive to controll the growing trend of CPI. However, because of the very big pressure from external crisis, someone would argue that stimulatingreal estate market will be helpful to curb possible deflation, but it will also incur potential risks owing to inadequate adjustment.
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第11期18-26,共9页
Finance & Economics
