基于成本传导能力模型的实证研究

Inflation's Impact on Industrial Climate Based on CTC Model

通胀环境下成本传导能力将是决定国际间和行业间利润流向的关键因素,本文提出并创建了成本传导能力模型,设计了成本传导能力指数(CTC)及其变动指数(VCTC),并实证测算了包含32个行业部门的中国CTC和VCTC指数。通过与行业利润对照发现,CTC及其变动指数VCTC能够较好地反映各行业转嫁成本上涨的能力及其变动情况,是定量研究通胀环境下行业景气的基础性指标。成本传导能力模型的研究结论对我国控制通胀、战略性调整经济结构以及提高我国国际间成本传导能力具有政策意义。

This paper proposes and constructs the model on capacity of transmitting cost （CTC）, designs indicators measuring the CTC and its variety （VCTC）, and calculates the industrial CTC and VCTC of 32 sectors. Comparing with the profits, these indicators can respond the industrial ability of pass on rising costs and its movement. CTC and VCTC are the base indexes of quantitative study on industrial climate under inflation. The conclusion has the policy significance to control inflation, strategically adjust economic structure and enhance our international CTC.