东南亚伊斯兰势力的新发展及其影响

The New Development and Influence of the Islamic Forces in Southeast Asia

东南亚金融危机后,东南亚一些国家合法的伊斯兰政治势力趋于活跃,非法的伊斯兰极端势力也得到发展,活动日益猖獗,对东南亚政治和社会稳定造成破坏和冲击。目前,东南亚合法的伊斯兰政治势力和非法的伊斯兰极端势力的影响都在扩大,但仍在政府的可控范围之内。因此短期内印度尼西亚和马来西亚等国变更国家体制的可能性不大,但伊斯兰教和世俗力量的斗争将加剧。从东南亚政治、社会经济和宗教发展的总体情况看,东南亚伊斯兰极端势力难以形成大的气候,但东南亚恐怖主义袭击的威胁还存在,东南亚的反恐斗争任重道远。

In Southeast Asia, after the financial crisis, some legitimate Islamic forces have become active while the illegal Istamist extremism has run rampant, having exerted destructive impacts on the political and social stability. Now, both the legitimate and the illegal forces, though swelling, are still under the control of government. So it is unlikely that the government system of Indonesia and Malaysia will have radical change in a short period of time. However, the struggle between Islamic and secular forces is getting fierce. Considering the political, social, economic and religious situations in Southeast Asia, the Islamist extremism will not likely to have powerful influence but the terrorist attack is still a threat. Southeast Asia will have a long way to go in the fight against terrorism.