当前国际体系分析

Analysis of the International System at Present

学术界对当前国际体系的描述大体不外乎单极体系、多极体系、多极化趋势、多行为体体系或所谓"一超多强",然而这些概括未免流于简单化。本文认为:当前国际体系现状并非可以用单个体系可以概括,而是表现为多元共存,这些体系包括威斯特伐利亚体系、后威斯特伐利亚体系、霸权体系和帝国体系。而且,每个体系基于自身发展逻辑正发生深刻变化,国际社会的前途将很大程度上决定于当前多元体系间的竞争和每个体系自身的变迁。

Academic descriptions of the present international system simply involve the unipolar system, the muhi -polar system, the multi - polar tendency, the multi - actors or the alleged ＂One Hegemon, Many Powers＂, which are actually simplified generalizations. In fact, the present international situation cannot be generalized by any single system and the world is actually a unity of coexistence with diversified systems such as the Westphalia, the post - Westphalia, the hegemonic and the imperialist. Each system is changing radically along with its intrinsic logic development. The future of the international community is, to a large extent, determined by the competitions among these systems and the change of each system.