2020年前适龄人口变化与普通高等教育规模发展趋势分析

Study on Population of the Right Age Variety and Regular Higher Education Scale Development Trend before 2020 Year

2020年前普通高等教育规模应保持什么样的发展速度为宜?本文对2020年前适龄人口变化状况进行了分析,在此基础上运用线性回归模型、逻辑增长曲线模型、趋势模型估测了2020年前普通高等教育规模,研究发现综合考虑国民经济发展水平、高等教育适龄人口变化等因素,今后我国普通高等教育的发展应考虑适度控制规模,逐步放缓增长速度。

Before 2020, what kind of growth speed should our regular higher education scale keep？ The paper analyzes the variety condition of population of the right age before 2020. Then the paper forecasts the development condition of regular higher education scale by using linear regression model, logistic growth curve model and trend model. It draws a conclusion that the regular higher education scale should be controlled and the growth speed should be slowed gradually considering the development level of national economy, the change of the right age population and so on henceforth.