基于证据理论的项目战略符合度评价研究

Study on the project strategic coincidence degree based on evidence theory

选择正确的项目组合是成功实施项目组合管理的前提。文章针对项目组合选择的研究缺乏从战略角度对项目的评价这一不足,提出了项目战略符合度的概念,建立了项目战略符合度评价指标体系;考虑到项目战略符合度评价过程中的不确定性,而证据理论是处理不精确、不确定知识的有效工具,提出了基于证据理论的评价方法,并用例子验证了方法的有效性。

The correct selection of project portfolio is the premise of successful project portfolio management. The studies on project portfolio selection are short of the evaluation of projects from the perspective of strategy. In this paper, the concept of project strategic coincidence degree is put forward. As there are many uncertainties in the process of project strategic coincidence degree evaluation, the evidential theory is adopted as an effective tool to deal with the imprecise and uncertain knowledge, and the evaluation method of the project strategic coincidence degree is advanced based on the.evidence theory. The presented method is validated with a case.