央行调高存款准备金率的宏观效应分析

The Analysis of the Effect on Raising the Deposit Reserve Ratio

央行再次上调存款准备金率0.5个百分点,调高至13.5%的历史新高,并于11月26日起开始执行,这是央行今年以来第九次提高存款准备金率。本文从分析国内的宏观经济背景出发,认为央行此次提高存款准备金率主要源于以下几个方面的原因:流动性压力依然存在,国际收支双顺差持续,CPI于10月再创新高,商业银行信贷规模进一步加大等,并从银行业、股市以及房地产业三个方面对央行提高存款准备金率的宏观效应做了分析,最后预期今年存款准备金率仍然存在上调空间,但幅度不会太大。

Recently, The central bank declared that the deposit reserve ratio would be increased once more by 0.5 percent to 13.5 percent. which would achieve the highest level on records. It was carried out on November 26th.This is the ninth lime to enhance the deposit reserve ratio this year. The paper begins with the analysis of the domestic macro-economy background and points out that several reasons account for the increasing of the deposit reserve patio： The liquidity pressure still exists; the favorable balance of intemational payments sustains; CPI set a record in October, the commercial bank＇s credit scale has enlarged further and so on, according to which an analysis of the macro effect of the central bank＇s conductraising the deposit reserve ratio- will be made from three aspects： bank industry, stock market and real estate market. At the end of the paper, the author anticipates that there is still some space for the deposit reserve ratio to enhance, but it won＇t be raised by a big margin.