基于模糊物元的上市公司财务困境预测的实证研究

Application of Fuzzy Matter-element Model in Forecasting Financial Distress for Listed Corporations

基于财务困境预测概念的模糊性和评价指标的不相容性,在模糊物元分析的基础上,将熵值理论与模糊集和贴近度相结合,建立了基于熵权与专家打分法所获权重的组合权重的模糊物元模型预测上市公司的财务困境,并以*ST夏新为例进行实证研究,研究结果表明,运用模糊物元模型预测上市公司的财务困境,其方法是可行的,为上市公司的财务困境预测提供了一种新方法。

In view of the uncertainty and the fuzziness of the effective factors for financial distress forecasting, the entropy value theory is applied to combine with fuzzy matter-element and approach degree to establish a fuzzy matter-element model based on coefficients of weights that combine with an entropy weight and a weight attained by Delphi. This method can be applied in listed corporations and the result indicates that the proposed method is reasonable and practical.