基于确定风险的农业保险博弈模型

博弈论(Games Theory)是研究具有斗争或竞争性质现象的理论和方法,指某个个人或是组织,在一定的环境条件和规则约束下,依靠所掌握的信息,从各自选择的行为或是策略中进行选择并加以实施,并取得相应结果或收益的过程。目前,我国农业保险参与率比较低,表面上看是由于农户的保险意识薄弱,但本质上是由于政府、农户、保险机构之间的风险利益分担机制没有形成。本文运用博弈模型对农业保险运行中三方的风险分担和利益共享机制进行了分析,最后验证了上述假说,即政府补贴农业保险是三者之间形成风险共担利益共享机制的关键。

Game Theory is an analysis method to study the nature of a struggle or competition, which means a process that an individual or organizations choose a dicision , do it, and make corresponding results relying on the available information and rules. At present, China＇ s agricultural insurance participation rate is low, which is ostensibly due to weak insurance awareness of farmers. But in fact, it is because the risk - sharing mechanisms have not formed among the government, farmer, and the insurance institution. In this paper, we analyzed the risk -benefit- sharing mechanism among three parties using the game theory model. Finally, we verified the hypothesis that is the governmental subsidies of agricultural insurance is the key to form the risk - benefit -sharing mechanism formation among three parties.