摘要
引入博弈论方法,建立了完全信息动态博弈模型,对"钓鱼工程"建设单位和出资方的博弈过程进行了分析。结果表明:如果没有一定的惩罚机制的约束,本博弈惟一的子博弈纳什均衡就是{超概算,追加拨款},从而揭示了"钓鱼工程"和"三超"现象存在的经济根源。最后基于博弈分析,从四个方面提出相应的对策和建议。
Game theory is introduced to analyze the strategies, payoffs and order between construction units and investors, the corresponding dynamic game model of perfect information is set up. The game results indicate that the only subgame perfect Nash equilibrium of this game is {overrunning budget estimate, adding investment} without restrictions of punishing mechanisms. According to the game, it reveals the economic sources of angling engineering projects and three overruns. At last, based on further game analyses, countermeasures of preventing angling engineering projects are presented from four aspects.
出处
《建筑经济》
北大核心
2008年第11期56-59,共4页
Construction Economy
关键词
钓鱼工程
动态博弈
超概算
沉没成本
对策
angling engineering projects
dynamic game
overrun of budget estimate
sunk cost
countermeasure
