客户终生价值的蒙特卡罗分析

Customer Lifetime Value Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation

客户终生价值分析是客户关系管理研究的重要课题,但现有的研究只限于于期望值分析,而忽略了客户价值的风险。本文使用贝叶斯方法及蒙特卡罗方法分析客户终生价值及客户资产,可以得到个体客户终生价值和客户资产的后验分布样本。分析的结果揭示了具有相近期望价值的客户,其风险可能存在较大差异,为客户选择决策提供了依据。

The assessment of customer lifetime value and customer equity is an important subject of the customer equity management. Previous studies have actually computed a spot estimation of the customer equity （CE） , and failed to get further information about the risk of the value. In this paper, the authors propose a Monte Carlo simulative approach for customer lifetime value analysis. The outcome of the analysis is a measure in which value is operationalized as a posterior probability distribution. By implementing MC simulation in a real situation, the study shows the customers with similar expected value may have a big difference in risk, which can be useful for customer selection decision making.