财政分权、经济增长与外贸依存度——基于1978-2007年我国改革开放30年数据的实证分析

Fiscal Decentralization,Economic Growth and Foreign Trade Dependency:an Empirical Research Based on the Data of 1978-2007

根据我国1978-2007年的数据,运用协整、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数研究了我国财政分权、经济增长对外贸依存度的动态影响。研究发现:在长期内,财政分权会提高我国的外贸依存度,而短期内财政分权对外贸依存度的作用不显著;以人均GDP衡量的经济增长,在短期内可提高外贸依存度水平,而在长期中却会降低外贸依存度。分析表明,财政分权引致的地方政府为经济增长而产生的鼓励FDI和出口的激励,经济增长及其促成的FDI及贸易升级、产业结构调整、内需导向型经济增长模式,是财政分权、经济增长和外贸依存度之间动态关系产生的内在逻辑。

Based on the data of 1978-2007, using cointegration analysis, Granger causality test and the impulse response function, this article studies the dynamic impacts of China＇s fiscal decentralization and economic growth on foreign trade dependency. The empirical analysis shows that： in the long run, fiscal decentralization can impulse the degree of foreign trade dependency, but in the short run, fiscal decentralization has no obvious effects on foreign trade dependency; GDP per capita can enhance the degree of foreign trade dependency in the short run, however in the long run, it can depress the foreign trade dependency. The analysis discovers that local governments＇ FDI and export incentives for the purpose of economic growth led by fiscal decentralization, economic growth, the FDI and trade promotion and industrial restructuring and domestic demand-oriented economic growth mode promoted by economic, are the internal logic of the dynamic relation between fiscal decentralization, economic growth and foreign trade dependency.