经济转型时期中国的非线性菲利普斯曲线

China's Nonlinear Philips Curve in Economic Transformation

本文应用半参数模型识别经济转型时期中国的非线性菲利普斯曲线,这种非线性关系表现为三次多项式函数,拟合效果较好,统计检验显著。此外,本文给出了非线性菲利普斯曲线的经济学阐释,并用于预测2007-2010中国的通货膨胀趋势。

This paper applies Semiparametric model to identify the China＇s nonlinear Philips curve in economic transformation, which represents in the form of cube-polynomial function, with good fitness and marked statistical test. Furthermore, this paper interprets the application of nonlinear Philips curve and uses it to predict the trend of inflation during 2007--2010.