俄罗斯走活对欧能源外交“大棋局”

In energy diplomacy with Europe, Russia comes out on top

近年来,俄罗斯"布子"对欧能源外交棋局,在欧洲能源地缘政治博弈中抢得了先机。俄罗斯为维护其经济和战略利益,积极建设"北流"、"南流"天然气管道,并扩建完成波罗的海原油管道运输系统二期工程,在减少对相关国家能源过境依赖的同时,提升欧盟对俄能源的依赖度。俄罗斯以提高天然气购买价格、建设和升级油气管道等为条件,加紧对中亚、里海地区油源和气源的控制。不久前的俄格冲突进一步加剧了外高加索地区的紧张局势,使得从格鲁吉亚过境的油气管道风险陡增。俄罗斯还全面强化与北非的能源合作,试图阻碍欧盟能源供应"多元化";努力分化欧盟,打破欧盟实行"统一能源政策"的部署;与伊朗等天然气生产大国酝酿建立"天然气欧佩克"。俄罗斯通过实施一系列精心设计的步骤,扼住欧洲的能源"命门",不仅经济获益丰厚,而且外交底气十足,在与欧盟的能源博弈中取得了一定的主动权。

Recent years have seen Russia plot its diplomatic strategy toward Europe and make preemptive moves on the energy geopolitical playing field. In an effort to protect its economic and strategic interests, Russia has been active in constructing the Nord Stream and South Stream natural gas pipelines and has completed the second phase of expansion on its Baltic Sea crude oil pipeline system. While reducing its dependence on cross-border energy transport, it is making the EU increasingly dependent on Russian energy. Contingent on an increase in the purchase price of natural gas, and the construction and upgrade of pipelines, Russia has tightened its control over oil and gas resources in the Central Asia and Caspian Sea regions. The recent conflict with Georgia has exacerbated tensions in the outer Caucasus region, heightening the risk to pipelines passing through Georgia. Russia is also making comprehensive efforts to strengthen energy ties with North Africa in a bid to forestall the 'diversification' of the EU energy supply. It is working to divide the EU and block the implementation of a unified energy policy. As well, Russia is pursuing the establishment of a 'natural gas OPEC' with Iran and other countries rich in natural gas. In a series of carefully orchestrated steps, Russia has gained control of the critical access point for European energy. In addition to reaping substantial economic gains, Russia has put itself in a strongdiplomatic position, allowing it to take the initiative on the energy playing field with the EU.