经济形势和我国能源战略

The economic situation and China’s energy strategy

2007年8月美国次贷危机爆发,使世界经济形势急转直下。这次危机威胁到美国的核心利益,造成了美欧金融体系核心层面的严重信用危机。2008年10月3日美国众议院通过了修改后的救市方案,力图买回市场的信心,重建金融机构信用。金融危机对中国经济的影响和冲击已经显现,主要是我国持有的巨额美元资产缩水,美元贬值和人为炒作导致今年上半年国际大宗商品价格猛涨使我国的进口成本大幅度上升,同时美欧需求疲软将进一步影响我国的出口。但从总体上看,我国经济运行的列车仍以巨大的惯性在快速前进,各项经济指标表现出平稳较快增长的良好态势,经济的基本面是好的。近期的油价大幅下跌说明,刚刚过去的这一轮油价上涨从根本上说不是供求关系失衡而是由于美元贬值和人为炒作造成的。我们在努力勘探开发石油资源和积极利用国外石油资源的同时,必须把节油降耗提到战略的高度,通过技术进步和结构调整,并制定相关的法律法规以及强有力的经济政策,把我国的石油消费量、石油消费强度较大幅度地降下来,确保我国经济可持续发展。

In August 2007, the eruption of the U.S. subprime lending crisis brought the world economy to its knees. Threatening the core interests of the United States, the situation produced a serious credit crisis at the core of the U.S. and European financial systems. The U.S. House of Representatives approved a revised bailout program on October 3, 2008, in an effort to buy back market confidence and rebuild the credit of financial institutions. This financial crisis has had a demonstrable impact on China’s economy. Most importantly, it has shrunk the value of the vast dollar assets held by China; the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, combined with speculation, sent international bulk commodity prices soaring during the first half, substantially increasing the cost of China’s imports; meanwhile, Chinese exports are feeling the impact of weak demand in the United States and Europe. Generally speaking, however, the nation’s economy retains its momentum and is still on track. Economic indicators are positive, showing steady and fairly rapid growth, and the fundamentals of the economy are good. The recent drop in oil prices indicates that the latest cycle of rising prices was caused by speculation and a depreciating U.S. dollar, not by a supply-demand imbalance. While working to develop petroleum resources and taking full advantage of resources from overseas, we must also bring energy conservation up to an optimum strategic level. Technical advances and structural changes, along with the creation of relevant laws and a strong economic policy, will allow China to substantially reduce oil consumption and oil density, and guarantee the sustainable development of its economy.