广东省农村居民收入与消费关系的协整研究

A Co-integration Study on the Income Consumption Relationship of Guangdong Rural Residents

以收入—消费理论和协整理论为基础,构建了收入与消费关系的模型,并用以分析广东省农村居民生活消费与收入的关系。研究表明,广东农村居民的消费与收入存在不可逆的棘轮效应,广东农村居民的当期消费受当期收入的影响较大,广东农村居民的消费行为具有理性回归的特点,广东农村居民的消费率,其下降趋势在短期内不易改变。

This paper builds an income consumption model based on the income consumption theory and co-integration theory, with which analyses the relationship between living consumption and income of Guangdong rural residents. The study shows that： first, there is irreversible ratcheting effect on the consumption and income of Guangdong rural residents; second, the current income plays an important part on the current consumption; third, the consumption behavior of Guangdong rural residents is characterized by rational regression ; finally, the declining trend of consume rate won＇t change within a short time.