养老保险现收现付制的挤出效应--一个内生生育率模型

On the Crowding out Effect of the Pay-as-you-go Financed Public Pensions

文章在一个内生经济增长的OLG模型框架下研究现收现付制养老保险计划的挤出效应,具体考察公共养老金税率变动对家庭的消费与储蓄、生育选择以及经济增长的长期影响。结果表明,存在向上利他动机的情况下,挤出效应的大小取决于养老基金的规模,适度规模的公共养老金计划不会挤出私人储蓄,而有利于消费增加与经济增长;较大规模的公共养老金计划会对私人自愿储蓄与消费产生负面影响,并且对储蓄的挤出作用要大于对消费的挤出。人口老龄化进程在一定程度上缓解挤出效应,促进资本积累与经济增长。

The article studied the crowding out effect of the Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous economic growth and fertility. In the paper, we analyzed the impacts of the public pensions on the individual＇s decision of savings, consumptions, fertility and the long run influences on the economic growth. We found that if there was ascend altruism among family members, under certain tax rate the public pensions did not crowd out individual savings but spur individual consumptions, which stimulated the economic growth. When the pension＇s tax rate was above the certain rate, the public pensions wound have negative effects on individual saving and consumption. We showed that an increase in life expectancy contributed to the capital accumulation and economic growth, thus buffered the negative effects of the public pensions.