北京市感染性腹泻疾病的医疗气象预报与应用研究

Research on the Application of Medical-Meteorological Forecast Model of Infectious Diarrhoea Disease in Beijing

通过分析北京市海淀区感染性腹泻病发病情况与北京市观象台地面气象要素的相关关系,建立感染性腹泻病医疗气象分级预报及风险水平评估模式。收集海淀区2004—2006年逐日菌痢周发病数和同期气象因素资料,建立数据库,分析气象因素与肠道传染病发病率的关系,并采用多元回归概率分级技术,建立感染性腹泻病医疗气象分级预报(划分5个等级)及风险水平评估模式。结果表明,感染性腹泻病发病与水汽压的相关程度很好,单相关系数为0.8340。在所有候选预报因子中,它的方差贡献占70.5%。其他方差贡献较大的因子,还有平均风速、气温日较差等。在感染性腹泻病医疗气象分级预报及风险水平评估模式中,如果预报等级与实际等级相差≤±1级统计为正确,感染性腹泻病医疗气象分级预报模式组的平均预报正确率可达98.5%。其中,预报等级与实际等级完全吻合的正确率可到62.9%～66.4%(指6个预报时效)。该模式预报结果可较好地为2008年奥运会提供肠道传染病预防服务,为北京各级疾病预防控制中心指导广大城乡居民卫生防疫提供科学依据。

Based on the data, collected in Haidian district in 2006, of the incidence of pre-day＇ s infectious diarrhoea and the weather condition, a forecasting model of infectious diarrhea medical-meteorological grade and risk level evaluation model were set up by using multiple regression probability grade analysis. The Pearson correlation coeffident of the incidence and the atmospheric vapor pressure was 0. 8340. The proprtion of variance contribution of vapor pressure was highest （70.5 % ）. Mean wind speed and diurnal temperature had higher proportion of variance contribution than other factors. If the difference between the forecasted grade and actual grade is no more than 1, the forecasted grade of the infectious diarrhoea disease medical-meteorological grade forecast models would be defined as proper grade. The mean ratio of proper forecasted grade forecast models was 98.5 %, and the exact proper rate （for 6 time periods） was 62.9-66.4 %. It is concluded that the forecasting modtel of infectious diarrhoea disease medical-meteorological grade forecast and the risk level evaluation modtel could well forecast the incident of infectious disease during Bingjing Olympic Games, and be helpful for the Center of Disease Prevention and Control （CDC） to provide public health services for citizens according to the outcomes of the models.