桂林电网日负荷与气象因素的关系及其预测

A Relationship between Daily Load and Meteorological Factors for Guilin Power Network and Forecasting

日负荷预测作为能量管理系统(EMS)的重要组成部分,是电力系统安全、经济运行的保证。为更好地了解气象因素对电网负荷的影响,利用桂林地区2005年和2006年逐日的负荷与气象资料分离出了气象负荷。通过研究气象负荷与各气象因素之间的相关关系表明:利用气象负荷可以更好地分析气象因素对日负荷的影响,从而为电力部门的负荷预测工作提供重要的参考依据。最后采用一种基于相似日的方法计算气象负荷,进而预测整个电力负荷,通过实际的算例验证,取得了比较满意的预测效果。

As a part of Energy Management System（EMS）, daily load forecasting is very important for safety and economy operation of the power system. For the sake of studying meteorological factors on the impact of load more comprehensively , the meteorological load is deduced from the load of guilin power network according to daily data from 2005 to 2006. The correlations between meteorological load and meteorological factors show that the relations between load and meteorological factors can be obtained more exactly through the meteorological load, which can provide important reference for the work of load forecasting of administration of power supply. Finally, a method based on similar days is adoped for the forecasting of meteorological load and integrated electric load and the actual example shows that the results are satisfactory for the daily load forecasting.