油气勘探工作量边际产出实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Marginal Output of Oil and Gas Exploration

勘探生产工程中,油气储量的发现可以看作是二维地震、三维地震以及探井工作量的产出。测算勘探工作量对储量发现的贡献时,选择国内某油田作为案例,分别建立了以探明储量作为因变量,探井工作量作为自变量以及探井工作量作为因变量,二维、三维地震工作量作为自变量的回归模型。在两个模型回归系数的基础上,综合测算二维、三维地震工作量的贡献率。勘探工作量对储量发现的贡献率可以作为油田未来投资决策及工作量部署的依据。

During exploration and production, the discovery of oil and gas reserves can be considered to be the result of 2D seismic work, 3D seismic work, and well exploration. When the contribution of exploration to reserves discovery is measured, an oilfield in China is selected as a case. A regressive model is established, taking the proved reserves as dependent variables and the exploration obligation as independent variables. Besides, the other regressive model is established, taking the exploration obligation as dependent variables and the 2D and 3D seismic work as independent variables. On the basis of the regression coefficient obtaining from the two models, the contribution rate of 2D and 3D seismic work is measured and calculated comprehensively. The contribution rate of exploration obligation to reserves discovery can be seen as the basis for making investment decisions and deploying work in oilfields.