甘肃省人均粮食时空格局变化特征及驱动机制分析

Regional Change of Per Capita Grain Possession and Its Driving Machanisms in Gansu Province Based on ESDA

应用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法和GIS技术,探讨了近15年来甘肃省县域尺度人均粮食空间格局变化特征及粮食生产与经济发展的空间匹配格局,并结合空间计量经济模型和定性分析探讨了粮食生产布局变化的驱动机制。结果表明:甘肃省县域人均粮食存在显著的空间自相关特征,空间转移剧烈;县域经济发展和粮食生产的地域格局呈现出日益显著的空间差异化特征;县域经济发展及其空间溢出效应是导致人均粮食地域格局变化的重要驱动力。

Based on exploratory spatial data analysis mathod and GIS techniques, regional changes of per capita grain possession, grain production and economic development at county scale in Gansu province were analyzed. In addison, a spatial econometric model was used to analyze the driving forces for these changes. Results indicated that： significantly positive correlation of per capita grain possession existed among regions in Gansu Province. Regional segment of grain production became more and more evident. Integrated driving forces of socioeconmic growth had a significant influence on grain production,meanwhile,agricultural policies and the restriction of physical condition were also playing an important role.